Chart: SPX 1-year daily

The S&P 500 is trying hard to break above the 4220 level and should do so in the next week or so. The market is overbought, and a modest pullback is warranted. All pullbacks at this point are buyable as the trend is firmly up. Once we get the break above 4220, the next level of resistance is in the 4325 range.


Chart: DVY 1-year daily

This is the tale of two markets: the FAANG stocks, along with technology, have been leading this rally in a big way. The value/high dividend payers are down for the year. A good ETF that follows value and dividends is DVY, and you can see from the chart that the first 5 months of the year have not been kind. The Russell 2000, which is a broader index, is only up 0.70 less than a point, and the DJIA is flat for the year. The broader market should start to broaden out as the market continues to move higher.

The debt ceiling is on investors’ minds as negotiations continue. It looks like a lot of theater, and we suspect both sides will reach some form of compromise in the next week or so. Biden and McCarthy are set to meet today as pressure to find an exit strategy for the debt ceiling crisis grows. A discharge petition in the House and Biden invoking the 14th Amendment are unlikely tools for solving the debt ceiling deadlock.

14 companies are reporting earnings this week. Of the 469 companies that have reported so far (94% of the S&P 500):

  • Overall, 77% are beating estimates, and those that beat are beating by a median of 8%.
  • Of the 22% missing, those are missing by a median of -6%.
  • On the top line, overall results are beating estimates by a median of 5% and missing by a median of -3%, and 76% of those reporting are beating estimates.